On February 19th Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked into his ruling Justice and Development Party’s parliamentary group meeting. He was cheered on by his party members as he entered smiling and appearing confident. He was about to make some serious threats.

One of the main topics of his speech was the latest developments in Syria's Idlib province. As he often does – Erdogan was lyrical in his speech. He quoted a line from a Turkish poem saying, "we could suddenly come one night." He is referring to a potential operation to stop the Syrian army assault on the opposition-held Idlib province. He's made the same reference in a speech before every single operation Turkey launched into Syria since 2016. On Wednesday, Erdogan said it is only "a matter of time," before they launch an operation. He also stated, "we will not leave Idlib to the Syrian regime, which does not understand our country's determination, and to those encouraging it." Turkey and Russia are cooperating and aiming for a diplomatic solution to Syria – and several round of talks between officials recently took place both in Ankara and Moscow. However,  these talks have so far failed. Erdogan claimed Turkey’s demands had not been met.

The Kremlin was not late in responding to Erdogan's threats. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that if Turkey's military operation would be against terrorist groups in Idlib, it would be in line with Sochi agreements… but added that if it were to be against the Syrian army, it would be the "worst-case scenario." Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the other hand stressed that "the key agreement on Idlib was to separate the Syrian armed opposition, who cooperates with Turkey, from the terrorists. And the terrorists, according to the agreements regarding Idlib, must not be involved in a ceasefire regime." Lavrov also claimed that the Syrian armed forces were responding to provocations in Idlib.

Provocations or not – the Syrian government has been advancing progressively over the last few months. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have managed to take back control of the strategic M5 highway that connects Damascus and Aleppo. Not only that – on February 19, Aleppo's civilian airport received its first flight in eight years. But while Assad's supporters rejoiced at the news – hundreds of thousands of civilians are devastated by the cost of the Syrian army’s moves. The UN's Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock has stated that around 900,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of December due to the attacks in Idlib. He says that "mothers are burning plastic to keep children warm" and "babies and small children are dying because of the cold." The Executive Director of Centre for Civilians in Conflict, Federico Borello, called the situation in Idlib, "the worst humanitarian catastrophe within the worst humanitarian catastrophe of our century." 

In the meantime, concerned of a potential new flow of refugees, Turkey is preparing to potentially carry out a military operation in the region – where it has been sending mass reinforcements over the last few weeks. Ankara has also received support from its NATO ally, the U.S. Speaking at the UN Security Council in New York, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft stated,  "the United States will continue to coordinate with Turkey on diplomatic approaches to restore a cease-fire to the Idlib de-escalation zone and achieve a pullback of Assad regime forces to 2018 Sochi ceasefire," adding that according to Washington; "There is no doubt that the Assad regime and Russia, not Turkey, are responsible for orchestrating and executing this military offensive." A show of solidarity Ankara might appreciate as it braces for a military offensive against Assad's forces – in what would be a dramatic first in the Syrian conflict.