How will the Coronavirus affect Latin America's economic growth and the fight against poverty?
Updated 04:59, 02-Apr-2020
CGTN

Europe's wealthier nations along with China and the United States have borne the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic and its deadly impact so far. In Latin America, there were more than 14,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday out of a global total of nearly 850,000.

Latin America governments have imposed lockdowns in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Peru, El Salvador, and Uruguay, and voluntary isolation in most countries.

As economists revise growth forecasts down across the world, Latin America is no exception. But while the devastating impact of the virus on major European nations is predicted to drive their economies well into the red (negative growth), Latin America may be marginally less impacted.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, or ECLAC, estimates a 1.8% contraction in regional gross domestic product (GDP). That could raise unemployment by 10% and drive a dramatic rise in the number of people living in poverty; from 35 million to around 220 million of a total 620 million inhabitants in the region. Those living in extreme poverty could increase from 67.4 to 90 million.

"This is the biggest human and health crisis we have ever faced," said Alicia Bárcena, executive secretary of ECLAC .  

"The disease jeopardizes human health and will impact an already weakened world economy, affecting it on both the supply and demand sides," she said.

A crisis loomed in the region driven by the overall decline in economic activity along with trade, tourism and investment, Bárcena added.

The region's economic reliance on China, the number one trading partner for several Latin American economies and a destination for commodities exports, has made Brazil, Chile and Peru particularly vulnerable.  

Some Latin American countries are making payments to informal workers like maids and street vendors but the cover is patchy, especially when the informal economy accounts for such a large fraction of the workforce in many countries. In Peru, some 70% of people work in the unregulated sector, paying no tax and receiving limited state benefits.

But the Andean country may be leading the way in its economic response to the pandemic. Earlier this month, it announced a payment of  $108, for the 2.7 million households classified as living in extreme poverty. A second payment will be made for the latter phase of the Andean country's month-long lockdown.

One of LatAm's healthiest economies, Peru will spend $26.41 billion, or the equivalent of 12% of its GDP to contain the coronavirus and recover from the economic fallout.

María Antonieta Alva, the country's youngest economy minister, announced the "unprecedented measure" on Sunday. The stimulus package will include deferring water and electricity payments, tax relief measures and direct payment to poor households.  

While Peru has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio among the bigger Latin American economies, Argentina is in the midst of an economic crisis and in need of "substantial debt relief" due to the pandemic, according to Argentina's finance minister Martín Guzmán.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's long-running humanitarian and economic crisis makes its people particularly vulnerable to the virus and economic impact. Since 2015, approximately 4.5 million Venezuelans have fled their country, according to the United Nations.

"Latin America is the region with the most inequality in the world," Geoff Ramsey, a Washington-based researcher at the Washington Office on Latin America, told Reuters.

"The gap between the wealthiest Latin Americans and the poorest Latin Americans is wider than anywhere else on the planet," Ramsey said.

By Dan Collyns, Lima